As I write this, OSCON is going on here in Portland, Oregon and the list of speakers and sessions gets better every year.

Open Source is going mainstream and is rapidly becoming a viable and sustainable business model, therefore the average attendee no longer looks like the stereotypical Birkenstock wearing, pony-tailed developer (ok... so I still occasionally wear my Birks  ).

Sure, development still dominates the discussion, but there is a very necessary and welcome balance of legal, business, sales, and operational discussions.

It's quite clear to me that Open Source and SaaS will be the dominant growth markets in software for the next 10 years. Maybe not so much in desktop and consumer apps, but definitely in Enterprise software and infrastructure.

The growth in open source is actually in the 'product halo' and not so much from the actual software. Support, consulting, documentation, hosting, testing.... the list goes on.

I wouldn't be surprised if hosting costs got so cheap that the 2 models converged to become "Free and Open Source Software Services" (FOSSS) with the premise being a vendor will host the software for you (for free) and only charge for training, implementation, and consulting (perhaps via remote desktop or through channel partners).

The downside to the programmable web and web service APIs is that the switching costs will continue to get lower. Switching your Email account, calendar apps, and even ERP/CRM systems will be as simple as switching your phone carrier today. FOSSS vendors will gladly help you move your data around for free in exchange for potential long-term services revenue.

Business software will always be complex simply because the compliance, accounting, and tax rules will not change significantly. Therefore, the services will always have more value over the software, especially if the software can be commodified.